The risks for British holidaymakers travelling to Mexico, according to a senior analyst

In Mexico, nan Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) has launched terrifying reprisals for nan decease of its leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes. Better known arsenic “El Mencho”, he ran 1 of nan biggest and astir convulsive organised crime gangs successful Mexico.

Since his decease location person been large-scale coordinated attacks successful Jalisco state, nan cartel’s heartland – including astatine nan Pacific edifice of Puerto Vallarta, and nan World Cup big metropolis of Guadalajara. The Foreign Office has issued aggregate warnings to British travellers successful Mexico.

Violence is now spreading crossed nan nation: blocking highways and burning vehicles, pinch innocents caught successful nan crossfire arsenic Mexican information forces effort to reconstruct order.

For an appraisal of nan risks facing British travellers to nan astir celebrated vacation locations successful Mexico, The Independent has enlisted thief from Sandra Pellegrini – elder expert for Latin America for nan conflict monitoring group Acled (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data).

We asked Ms Pellegrini to measure nan dangers successful 3 cardinal areas of Mexico celebrated pinch UK travellers:

These are nan questions I asked Ms Pellegrini, on pinch her answers. Her insights make basal reference for anyone contemplating a travel to Mexico.

What’s nan image crossed Mexico?

“Early developments bespeak that what we are apt to spot successful nan short word is simply a show of unit by nan CJNG and its friends against information forces.

“Usually, successful much tourism-oriented areas, criminal groups person maintained a little floor plan truthful arsenic not to pull awesome operations and sphere their gross streams.

“The states of Yucatan, Quintana Roo and Oaxaca are not among Mexico’s hotspots of violence. Mexico City does not rank among nan astir convulsive states either, though gang-related unit has accrued successful 2025 compared to nan erstwhile 4 years.

“That being said, nan CJNG remains 1 of nan astir powerful cartels successful nan country, pinch a near-nationwide presence, including successful nan states you mentioned, and successful fact, we person already begun to spot signs of reactive unrest pursuing nan sidesplitting of El Mencho.

“It is imaginable that nan sidesplitting of El Mencho could lead to an soul powerfulness struggle wrong nan CJNG. Rival groups mightiness beryllium attempting to return advantage of nan destabilisation wrong nan CJNG to push for territorial control.”

Is Mexico City a imaginable battleground?

“There is nary clear cartel hegemony complete Mexico City and nan superior remains heavy contested by respective criminal actors.

“However, nan CJNG has reportedly established a foothold and has sought to grow its influence, notably done alliances pinch section groups specified arsenic La Unión Tepito.

“At present, nan information business does not look critical, though section authorities person raised alert levels. An contiguous surge successful unit seems little likely, though it cannot beryllium excluded, and retaliatory actions against nan authorities stay possible.”

What astir nan Yucatan peninsula?

“The region has been disputed betwixt nan CJNG and nan Sinaloa Cartel, partially owed to its strategical position arsenic an introduction constituent for supplier shipments from South America. More specifically, nan CJNG has maintained a beingness astir Cancun and nan seashore (including Cozumel), arsenic good arsenic Mérida and its coastal areas.

“There are already reports of narco roadblocks and arson attacks against businesses successful Cozumel, Playa del Carmen, Tulum, and Cancun. These actions look to beryllium demonstrations of force.

“For travellers, nan main short-term consequence would beryllium localised disruption (road and business closures, impermanent information incidents) alternatively than targeted unit against tourists.”

And successful nan confederate authorities of Oaxaca?

“The CJNG is coming successful Oaxaca state, peculiarly successful parts of cardinal and northeastern Oaxaca.

“At this stage, unit and narco roadblocks do not look to straight impact coastal tourer areas specified arsenic Huatulco aliases Puerto Escondido. But they person been recorded on nan Juchitán–La Ventosa highway, which links nan region pinch Chiapas successful southeast Mexico.”

Will nan sidesplitting of a cartel leader calm nan nation?

“No. The contiguous road blockades and arson attacks show really quickly cartels tin mobilise retaliation to show continued control. Past cases propose activity removals seldom trim unit agelong term, and alternatively often trigger instability arsenic factions compete for power.”

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